Search This Blog

Loading...

Sunday, 20 November 2011

A SURGE IN SERVICED APARTMENTS

THE NATION Issued date 16 November 2011

Early Sukhumvit remains the most popular venue.

More than 800 new serviced apartment units are scheduled to be completed in the fourth quarter of this year and early Sukhumvit retains the vast priority of the new supply, while Central Lumpini has also become a preferred location to live in, with a surge in more Grade A units being built.

According to Colliers International Thailand, approximately 200 units have been completed and are already occupied, out of the nearly 1,000 units that are scheduled to be completed in 2011. Sukhumvit Road still retains its mantle as the most popular location for serviced apartments, mainly due to the fact that more than 70 per cent of total units scheduled for completion in Q4-2011, will be located along the initial stretch of this road.
Total supply of serviced apartment units, for the end of 2011, is expected to be approximately 17,860.

Distribution of serviced apartments differs according to location, based on the particular profile of each area. Central Lumpini, for example, contains many large embassies and is therefore seen as being the most prestigious location to live in and, as such, contains more grafe A units. Late Sukhumvit also contains more grade A units, due to the existence of a number of luxury branded aprtments in Thong Lor Road, catering to the large Japanese expatriate community there. However, early Sukhumvit remains the preferred choice for grade B apartments, as it is a more unpretentious and relaxed location, which also explains the location of more Up-Scale, rather than Luxury hotels. 'Other' areas contain more grade C products, mainly due to their distance from the centre.

More than 800 units are scheduled to be completed in Q4-2011. Sukhumvit Road, alone, will host the vast majority of a new supply this year. More than 75 per cent of the new units scheduled to be completed in 2011 are located on Sulhumvit Road, with nearly 80 units also scheduled for completion in 2012 in the Sukhumvit area. The main driver is not only the popularity of this road as a residential destination, but also the fact that the relative land price is lower than more central locations and it is also convenient for the BTS line.

The addition of new retail centres, such as "Terminal 21", will add to the appeal of this road to both tourists and expatriates alike. Average occupancy rates in Q3-2011 have increased from the previous quarter and compares favourably with the same quarter last year. However, last year was a troubled one for the sector, mainly due to the political upheavals.

Occupancy rates in all location increased deom the previous quarter, especially in Central CBD and Central Lumpini, which increased approximately 9-11 per cent, mainly due to a reduction in rental rates.

Growth in occupancy was partially fuelled by a small fall in rental rates overall and the addition of significant new supplies in Q4-2011 are more than likely to lead to a weakening of the sector, after bouncing back strongly after Q2-2011. Although the political situation has stabilized for the short and medium term, growing concerns regarding the global financial situation, as well as the short term impact of massive flooding throughout Thailand, could lead to a more difficult period for the serviced apartment sector.

Meanwhile, Patima Jeerapaet, managing director, Colliers, said that for the remainder of the quarter, residential launches are most likely to remain subdued, due to the current sentiment and logistics. However, unlike the post May 17, 2010 situation, when buyers jumped straight into the market, many will now probably be more cautions about making a big decision on property purchases, until ongoing events have ended and an analysis of the flood situation is undertaken.

The decision on whether to purchase landed property, versus a high-rise condominium unit, will most probably find favour in the latter, due to the recent floods experience, but people will, nevertheless, continue to evaluate areas that are less prone to floods.

"Even if your high-rise home is protected you still don't want the area around it inunfdated with floodwater for weeks", pointed out Jeerapaet. However, long delays in buyers coming back to the market will result in a pent-up demand, very likely to increase until, eventually, a significant number of launches will take place.

According to Tony Picon, Associate Director at Colliers, condominiums will become even more popular than they were before the floods. In the aftermath of the floods, many who were forced to evacuate to relief centres may now rethink their options. "You may now find families encouraging one of their number to purchase a condominium unit, even helping with the financing, as it would then function as a back-up residence for the family in the event of a recurrence".

At the high-income end of the market the same reasoning could add to the trend for purchasing second homes in resorts, such as Hua Hin, or Pattaya. "Many fled to these resorts during the flood inundation, especially people who didn't need to work in Bangkok, or children and the elderly", said Monchai Orawongpaisan, senior manager for residential project sales and marketing. Family pressure could therefore result in more property being purchased, not only as a weekend retreat, but also as a back-up residence in emergencies.

"We could see significant activity in the market during the first half of next year, based on this trend, Hua Hin, Pattaya and other nearby resorts", he added.

Although high-rise accommodation will continue to prove more popular, it is considered that landed property will still retain a strong presence in the city. Dire warnings of global warming leading to more regular flooding problems, including flash floods from heavy downpours, may lead to a future trend of simply opting for houses on stilts, which reflect a common mode of living in the past that catered to the possibility of flooding.

Picon pointed out that the problem for buyers of finding suitable locations relatively safe from future floods, is that effects can vary, based on a number of factors, as we have witnessed during the latest situation.

Bargains ample post-floods

BANGKOK POST Issued date 15 November 2011

KANANA KATHARANGSIPORN
PROPERTY

Prices of land an other property in flooded areas will drop in the next couple of years, while home purchasing sentiment will take at least six months to return to normal, says the property consultant Colliers International Thailand.

Managing director Patima Jeerapaet said the next two or three years will be a golden opportunity for property developers to buy up land in flooded areas at bargain prices.

However, there may not be any large migrations of residents from the flooded areas, as Thais usually like to stick with familiar locations and will forget about the flooding in the next couple of years,he told a media conference on the postflood Bangkok real estate market yesterday.

"Homebuyers will wait and see the situation after the floods and delay making a decision. Housing sentiment will resume towards the middle of next year at the earliest. Housing developers will delay launching new projects," he said.

While new low-rise launches will be postponed, inner-city condominiums,especially near mass transit, will continue to enjoy healthy sales.

After the floods, the protection paradigm will change. Individuals will raise up land levels and erect water barrier fences.

Drainage systems will be improved,water storage tanks installed and electrical sockets moved up."The popularity of single houses and townhouses will stay the same. But their design may change to that of high-rise developments,with parking on the ground and the living area including the electricity system starting from the second floor," he aid.

He said an initiative by many condo developers to have fewer parking slots in new residential high-rises should be scrapped, as car parks in such buildings are crucial for keeping residents' vehicles safe from floodwater.

น้ำท่วมทำพิษ นิคมอุตสาหกรรมเสียหายหลายร้อยเท่า

มากกว่า 59 จังหวัดที่ประสบปัญหาน้ำท่วมไม่เพียงแต่พื้นที่การเกษตรเท่านั้นที่เสียหาย แต่ยังทำความเสียหายอย่างรุนแรงไปถึงนิคมอุตสาหกรรมในภาคกลางอีกหลายแห่ง และส่งให้เกิดการหยุดชะงักของระบบบการขนส่งสินค้า, จากคำกล่าวของ คอลลิเออร์ส อินเตอร์เนชั่นแนล ประเทศไทย

เมื่อน้ำท่วมในหลายพื้นที่ของประเทศไทยตั้งแต่เดือนสิงหาคม และส่งผลกระทบต่ออุตสาหกรรมการผลิตไม่มากนัก เนื่องจากโรงงานส่วนใหญ่ตั้งอยู่ห่างจากพื้นที่น้ำท่วม แต่เมื่อระดับเริ่มเพิ่มสูงขึ้นจนเกินกว่าแนวป้องกัน และมากกว่าที่เกิดขึ้นในจังหวัดอยุธยาในวันที่ 5 ตุลาคม ซึ่งเป็นฐานการผลิตใหญ่ และส่งผลกระทบรุนแรง, จากคำพูดของ นางสาวนฤมล โรจน์สิรวรพัฒน์ ผู้จัดการอาวุโสฝ่ายบริการอุตสาหกรรม คอลลิเออร์ส อินเตอร์เนชั่นแนล ประเทศไทย มีความแตกต่างกันอย่างมากมายมหาศาลของความเสียหายที่เกิดขึ้นในช่วงไม่กี่วันนี้กับหลายเดือนก่อนหน้า “ความสูญเสียในภาคอุตสาหกรรมเพิ่มขึ้นมากกว่า 100 เท่า ตั้งแต่วันที่ 5 ตุลาคมที่ผ่านมา เนื่องจากนิคมอุตสาหกรรม 2 แห่งโดนน้ำท่วม ส่วนอีก 2 แห่งยังคงอยู่ระหว่างการเฝ้าระวัง” นางสาวนฤมล กล่าว

โกดังสินค้าและศูนย์กระจายสินค้าจำนวนมากได้รับผลกระทบจากน้ำท่วม โดยเฉพาะที่ตั้งอยู่ที่จังหวัดอยุธยาและบนถนนพหลโยธินที่ปัจจุบันถูกน้ำท่วมบางช่วง ซึ่งสถานการณ์ยังคงอยู่ในขั้นวิกฤตเนื่องจากมีฝนตกอย่างต่อเนื่องช่วงสัปดาห์ที่ผ่านมารวมทั้งปริมาณน้ำจำนวนมหาศาลกำลังไหลลงมายังจังหวัดภาคกลางตอนล่าง ดังนั้นนิคมอุตสาหกรรมต่างๆ ในจังหวัดปทุมธานี และกรุงเทพมหานคร กำลังอยู่ในอันตราย

นางสาว นฤมล ยังกล่าวอีกว่า มากกว่า 500 โรงงานต้องปิดตัวลงในช่วงนี้ และคนงานมากกว่า 100,000 คนต้องตกงาน “ความเสียหายจากน้ำท่วมน่าจะใช้เวลา 2 – 3 เดือนหลังจากน้ำลดในการแก้ปัญหาต่างๆ เพราะบริษัทต่างๆ ต้องใช้เวลาในการปรับปรุง ซ่อมแซม อาคาร และเครื่องจักร ”

ภาคอุตสาหกรรมฟื้นตัวขึ้นอย่างรวดเร็วจากปี 2553 และเกิดการขาดแคลนพื้นที่โกดังสินค้าในบางพื้นที่ โดยเฉพาะโกดังขนาดใหญ่และมีมาตรฐานดี ในอยุธยา และบางพื้นที่บนถนนบางนา – ตราด และแหลมฉบังซึ่งเป็นที่ต้องการอย่างมากในขณะที่อุปทานมีอยู่จำกัด “ผู้ประกอบการควรเข้าใจถึงความต้องการของผู้เช่าที่คำนึงถึงมาตรฐานของอาคาร ทำเล รูปแบบอาคาร และพื้นที่นั้นๆ เป็นพื้นที่ปลอดภาษีหรือพื้นที่ธรรมดาทั่วไป เป็นต้น และพวกเราหวังว่าโกดังสินค้าใหม่ทีจะเกิดขึ้นในอนาคตควรจะเป็น raised floor ทั้งหมด” นางสาว นฤมล กล่าวเพิ่มเติม

ถึงแม้ว่าปฏิกริยาหลังจากน้ำท่วมอาจมีการย้ายฐานการผลิตบ้าง แต่ในภาคอุตสาหกรรมการผลิดของประเทศไทยยังคงสดใส นาย ปฏิมา จีระแพทย์ กรรมการผู้จัดการ ของคอลลิเออร์ส กล่าวว่า “นักลงทุนจำนวนมากลงทุนเป็นเงินจำนวนมหาศาล และเป็นระยะเวลานานแล้ว และพวกเขาไม่สามารถที่จะย้ายไปที่อื่นได้” “และยังต้องใช้เวลาในการสร้างเครือข่ายด้วย” เขากล่าวเพิ่มเติม นาย ปฏิมายังให้ความเห็นเพิ่มเติมว่า ความเสียหายไม่ได้เกิดขึ้นที่ประเทศไทยเท่านั้น แต่น้ำท่วมส่งผลกระทบต่อ กัมพูชา ฟิลิปปินส์ และลาว “ประเทศไทยยังคงเป็นตัวเลือกที่ดีที่สุดในการเป็นฐานการผลิต เมื่อพิจารณาถึงปัจจัยอื่นๆ เช่น ระบบสาธารณูปโภคที่สามารถรับมือกับน้ำท่วมได้ เมื่อเปรียบเทียบกับ เวียดนาม และกัมพูชา” นาย ปฏิมา กล่าว

ความเป็นไปได้อีกอย่างหนึ่งคือการสร้างโกดังสินค้าสำรองในพื้นที่ที่น้ำท่วมไม่ถึง “ภายหลังจากเหตุการณ์รุนแรงในพื้นที่ธุรกิจในกลางกรุงเทพมหานครเมื่อปีที่ผ่านมา ผู้เช่าในอาคารสำนักงานต่างเริ่มมองหาสำนักงานสำรองในทำเลอื่น และน่าจะเกิดขึ้นในภาคอุตสาหกรรมด้วยเช่นกัน” นายปฏิมา กล่าว อย่างไรก็ตามการประเมินความเสียหายจากน้ำท่วมน่าจะใช้เวลาเป็นสัปดาห์หรือมากกว่านั้น “พวกเราคาดหวังว่าความเสียหายจะไม่มากจนเกินไป” นาย ปฏิมา กล่าวเพิ่มเติม

Cost multiplying for industrial market due to floods

The ongoing floods that have affected more than 59 provinces in Thailand have devastated huge swathes of agricultural land but the extremity of the floods have put more damaged industrial activity, including industrial estates and further potential flooding threatens more central locations causing greater disruptions to the supply chain, according to Colliers International Thailand.

While the floods have ravaged many parts of Thailand since August, relatively little damage to manufacturing was inflicted due to most factories being located away from initial flooding areas. However this changed on October 5th when water levels reached their highest point in living memory and Ayutthaya, home to significant manufacturing, was seriously affected. According to Narumon Rodsiravoraphat, Senior Manager for Industrial Services at Colliers, far greater damage was caused to industry in the last few days compared to the previous few months. "Over a hundred times greater financial loss to industry was incurred since 5th October due to severe damage to two industrial estates and two others have been evacuated in anticipation of flood waters reaching them", said Narumon.

Many warehouses and distribution centres have been seriously affected especially in Ayutthaya area and along the main highway of Phahonyothin road which has become effectively the channel for water in the north to flow down to the central provinces. Over the course of the week further flooding is expected due to looming storms and industrial facilities in Pathumthani and Bangkok itself are now in danger.

According to Narumon, more than 500 factories have been forced to close during this situation and more than 100,000 workers have been affected from this crisis. "The damage from the flooding may be take up to two to three months to be accessed and rectified after the water level decreases as companies must take time for renovation of facilities as well as repair and re-operation of machinery", she added.

The industrial market has picked up rapidly from 2010 and there has already been a shortage of warehouse space in some locations, especially good quality large space in Ayutthaya and some Bangna areas. Lamchabang, where there is strong demand for free zones, also seems short of supply. "Developers should understand more of the market demands and requirements in terms of specification, locations, layout, and general/free trade zones, etc. And we do hope that all new warehouse developments will all be raised floor", said Narumon.

Although the initial reaction after the flood will be for the relocation of manufacturing, in reality manufacturers will remain rather sanguine according to Patima Jeerapaet, Managing Director of Colliers. "Many have invested significant amounts of money over time and they are just not going to walk away", he said. "It also takes time to create a supplier network as well" he added. Patima also noted that serious damage was not limited to Thailand and the horrors of the flood are also evident in Cambodia, Philippines and Laos. "Manufacturers will be wary of relocating to countries with less reliable infrastructure to cope with floods and they may decide that Thailand is a better location than say Vietnam or Cambodia due to this fact. However new investment for manufacturing locations may be shifted towards non flooding areas in Thailand. All factories, distribution centers, and logistics companies also must create and work out their contingency plan well enough in advance”, said Patima.

One possible ramification could be the development of back up storage centres in locations upon higher ground that can protect goods from damage. "After the riots in 2010 many office occupiers considered back up locations and the same may now apply for industrial activity", said Patima. However, unfortunately the flooding story has not run its course and a better assessment can be made in a week or so time. "We only hope that further damage is kept to a minimum"' added Patima.

Cost multiplying for industrial market due to floods

The ongoing floods that have affected more than 59 provinces in Thailand have devastated huge swathes of agricultural land but the extremity of the floods have put more damaged industrial activity, including industrial estates and further potential flooding threatens more central locations causing greater disruptions to the supply chain, according to Colliers International Thailand.

While the floods have ravaged many parts of Thailand since August, relatively little damage to manufacturing was inflicted due to most factories being located away from initial flooding areas. However this changed on October 5th when water levels reached their highest point in living memory and Ayutthaya, home to significant manufacturing, was seriously affected. According to Narumon Rodsiravoraphat, Senior Manager for Industrial Services at Colliers, far greater damage was caused to industry in the last few days compared to the previous few months. "Over a hundred times greater financial loss to industry was incurred since 5th October due to severe damage to two industrial estates and two others have been evacuated in anticipation of flood waters reaching them", said Narumon.

Many warehouses and distribution centres have been seriously affected especially in Ayutthaya area and along the main highway of Phahonyothin road which has become effectively the channel for water in the north to flow down to the central provinces. Over the course of the week further flooding is expected due to looming storms and industrial facilities in Pathumthani and Bangkok itself are now in danger.

According to Narumon, more than 500 factories have been forced to close during this situation and more than 100,000 workers have been affected from this crisis. "The damage from the flooding may be take up to two to three months to be accessed and rectified after the water level decreases as companies must take time for renovation of facilities as well as repair and re-operation of machinery", she added.

The industrial market has picked up rapidly from 2010 and there has already been a shortage of warehouse space in some locations, especially good quality large space in Ayutthaya and some Bangna areas. Lamchabang, where there is strong demand for free zones, also seems short of supply. "Developers should understand more of the market demands and requirements in terms of specification, locations, layout, and general/free trade zones, etc. And we do hope that all new warehouse developments will all be raised floor", said Narumon.

Although the initial reaction after the flood will be for the relocation of manufacturing, in reality manufacturers will remain rather sanguine according to Patima Jeerapaet, Managing Director of Colliers. "Many have invested significant amounts of money over time and they are just not going to walk away", he said. "It also takes time to create a supplier network as well" he added. Patima also noted that serious damage was not limited to Thailand and the horrors of the flood are also evident in Cambodia, Philippines and Laos. "Manufacturers will be wary of relocating to countries with less reliable infrastructure to cope with floods and they may decide that Thailand is a better location than say Vietnam or Cambodia due to this fact. However new investment for manufacturing locations may be shifted towards non flooding areas in Thailand. All factories, distribution centers, and logistics companies also must create and work out their contingency plan well enough in advance”, said Patima.

One possible ramification could be the development of back up storage centres in locations upon higher ground that can protect goods from damage. "After the riots in 2010 many office occupiers considered back up locations and the same may now apply for industrial activity", said Patima. However, unfortunately the flooding story has not run its course and a better assessment can be made in a week or so time. "We only hope that further damage is kept to a minimum"' added Patima.

Residential market likely to remain uncertain for sometime after the floods

With the ever growing inundation of Bangkok and exhausting uncertainties regarding the potential flooding situation in the centre of the city; even in the best case scenario the pattern for the residential market will be difficult to assess even after the floods have receded, according to real estate company Colliers International Thailand. For the rest of the quarter residential launches are very likely to remain subdued due to current sentiment and logistics. However unlike the post May 17 2010 situation, when buyers jumped straight into the market, many will probably be cautious about making such a big decision as a property purchase until the ongoing events have ended and an analysis of the flood is undertaken, according to Patima Jeerapaet, Managing Director of Colliers. "The full story will need to be known before buyers come rushing in again and developers will also need to reevaluate projects", he said.

The decision as to whether to purchase landed property versus a high-rise condominium will likely be in favour of the latter due to the floods but even then people will evaluate which areas are less prone to floods. "Even if your high-rise home is protected you still don't want the area inundated with flood water for weeks", pointed out Mr Jeerapaet. However long the delays in buyers coming back in the market the pent up demand is likely to increase and eventually a significant number of launches will take place. According to Tony Picon, Associate Director at Colliers, condominiums will be even more popular than they were before the floods. "We are noticing that more older people and children are staying in condominiums at the moment and the reason is that the owners are using units as temporary accommodation for their extended families", he said. In the aftermath of the floods many who were forced to evacuate to centres may rethink their options. "You could find families encouraging one of their number to purchase a condominium unit and even help in financing, as it would then function as a back-up residence", pointed out Mr Picon.

At the high-income end of the market the same reasoning could add to the trend for purchasing second homes in resorts such as Hua Hin or Pattaya. "Many have fled to these resorts especially people who don't need to work in Bangkok such as children and the elderly", stated Monchai Orawongpaisan, Senior Manager for Residential Project Sales and Marketing. Again family pressure could result in more property being purchased not only as a weekend retreat but also as a back- up residence. "We could see significant activity in the market during the first half of next year based on this trend in Hua Hin, Pattaya and other nearby resorts", he added.

While high rises will prove more popular, landed property will still remain a strong presence in the city. There are dire warnings of global warning leading to more regular flooding problems, including flash floods as a result of heavy downpours and a future trend could be simply opting for houses on stilts which reflected a common mode of living in the past. "Many countries have been affected by floods and stilt based housing is proving more popular with innovative designs coming to the fore which exclude the use of hardwood pilling", said Mr Picon. The existence of such properties would also support the city in allowing water to run off quickly. "It is basically a way of accepting Mother Nature and living with it rather than trying to confront the situation ", he added.

Mr Picon pointed out that the problem for buyers finding locations that will be relatively safe from future floods is that effects can vary based on a number of factors. "Firstly, flooding is a combination of run-off from the north, heavy rains and high tides in November; and the impact of each differs for every flood leading to different geographical patterns of inundation ", said Mr Picon. The other variable is that the elaborate flood protection system for Bangkok is managed by politicians and administrators, and their priorities can change. "If the whole of Bangkok is inundated this time then buyers will face a big dilemma as to finding suitable locations in the future", warned Mr Picon.